December 17, 2008
Los Angeles Times

By Tom O'Neil
December 17, 2008

After Oscar nomination ballots get shipped on Dec. 26, voters will list five choices for best picture, but, considering how the academy's preferential ballot works, really only the No. 1 and No. 2 votes count. That means films with a high rooting factor like "Slumdog Millionaire" and "Milk" may get nominated even if they have only a small vote base. Big studio films with support across academy branches like "The Curious Case of Benjamin Button" and "The Dark Knight" also benefit.

BEST PICTURE

Favorites

"The Curious Case of Benjamin Button"
"The Dark Knight"
"Doubt"
"Frost/Nixon"
"Milk"
"Revolutionary Road"
"Slumdog Millionaire"

Spotlight: During the last 20 years, the movie with the most nominations has won best picture 15 times. Films with the potential to lead this year include "Benjamin Button," "Milk," "Revolutionary Road" and "The Dark Knight."

Possible
"The Reader"
"Defiance"
"Gran Torino"
"Rachel Getting Married"
"Wall-E"
"The Wrestler"

Spotlight: Only one animated film has ever been nominated for best picture -- "Beauty and the Beast" (1991). Now that they have their own category, introduced in 2001, can they ever break through again? They're eligible. "Ratatouille" didn't have the recipe last year, but that adorable "Wall-E" may have the secret ingredients for an upset.

Long shots

"Australia"
"Changeling"
"The Class"
"Frozen River"
"Gomorrah"
"The Visitor"

Spotlight: Every now and then, voters like to nominate foreign-language films like "Crouching Tiger, Hidden Dragon" (2000) and "Life Is Beautiful" (1998) for best picture just to prove that the Oscar isn't a Hollywood-centric award. That means Italy's "Gomorrah" and France's "The Class" have a shot.

DOCUMENTARY

FEATURE

Favorites

"At the Death House Door"
"Blessed Is the Match: The Life and Death of Hannah Senesh"
"Encounters at the End of the World"
"I.O.U.S.A."
"Man on Wire"
"Pray the Devil Back to Hell"
"Standard Operating Procedure"
"The Betrayal (Nerakhoon)"
"Trouble the Water"

Spotlight: Two critically hailed docs that each won jury awards at Sundance square off: "Man on Wire" vs. "Trouble the Water." "Man on Wire" has the higher critics' score (89 at Metacritic.com), earned more money ($3 million) and took top prize from the International Documentary Assn.
Possible

"Fuel"
"Glass: A Portrait of Philip in Twelve Parts"
"In a Dream"
"Made in America"
"The Garden"
"They Killed Sister Dorothy"

Spotlight: Explorations of timely social issues often win, like past champs "An Inconvenient Truth" (2006) and "Bowling for Columbine" (2002). This year's contenders include "Fuel," an indictment of American dependence on foreign oil; "The Garden," a look at the commercial development of an urban oasis; and "Made in America," a first-person account of L.A. gang violence.

FOREIGN LANGUAGE FILM

A record 67 countries entered the foreign film race, including first-timer Jordan with "Captain Abu Raed," which has a real chance to be nominated after its Audience Award win at the Sundance Film Festival. However, an Oscar voter who judges foreign entries reports, "Overall, the quality of films this year is underwhelming." Referring to the ballot process in which voters must attend screenings and score films 10 (best) to 7, he observes "a lot of 7 votes" all around.

Favorites

"The Baader Meinhof Complex," Uli Edel, director (Germany)
"The Blind Sunflowers," Jose Luis Cuerda, director (Spain)
"Captain Abu Raed," Amin Matalqa, director (Jordan)
"The Class," Laurent Cantet, director (France)
"Dunya & Desie," Dana Nechushtan, director (The Netherlands)
"Eldorado," Bouli Lanners, director (Belgium)
"Everlasting Moments," Jan Troell, director (Sweden)
"Gomorrah," Matteo Garrone, director (Italy)
"Last Stop 174," Bruno Barreto, director (Brazil)
"Lion's Den," Pablo Trapero, director (Argentina)
"The Necessities of Life," Benoit Pilon, director (Canada)
"O'Horten," Bent Hamer, director (Norway)
"Revanche," Gotz Spielmann, director (Austria)
"Snow," Aida Begic, director (Bosnia-Herzegovina)
"The Song of Sparrows," Majid Majidi, director (Iran)
"Tear This Heart Out," Roberto Sneider, director (Mexico)
"3 Monkeys," Nuri Bilge Ceylan, director (Turkey)
"Tony Manero," Pablo Larrain, director (Chile)
"Tricks," Andrzej Jakimowski, director (Poland)
"Tulpan," Sergey Dvortsevoy, director (Kazakhstan)
"Waltz With Bashir," Ari Folman, director (Israel)
"Worlds Apart," Niels Arden Oplev, director (Denmark)

Spotlight: According to new rules, regular foreign-film voters will choose only six of the nine finalists, which will be announced around Jan. 13. An executive committee will select the other three, presumably championing the kind of edgy, critical faves that often get snubbed. This year those may be "Gomorrah" (best picture winner at the European Film Awards may depict too much violent crime), "The Class" (Cannes' Palme d'Or champ may be discounted because of its documentary style) and "Waltz With Bashir" (the academy seldom appreciates animation).

Possible

"Blind Loves," Juraj Lehotsky, director (Slovakia)
"Cape No. 7," Te-Sheng Wei, director (Taiwan)
"Correction," Thanos Anastopoulos, director (Greece)
"Departures," Yojiro Takita, director (Japan)
"Dream Weavers," Jun Gu, director (China)
"Fortress," Shamil Nacafzada, director (Azerbaijan)
"The Friend," Micha Lewinsky, director (Switzerland)
"Heavens Blue," Marie Jaoul de Poncheville, director (Kyrgyzstan)
"The Home of Dark Butterflies," Dome Karukoski, director (Finland)
"Hope Eternal," Karl Francis, director (United Kingdom)
"I'm From Titov Veles," Teona Strugar Mitevska, director (Macedonia)
"Iska's Journey," Csaba Bollok, director (Hungary)
"The Island," Sherif Arafa, director (Egypt)
"Jerusalema," Ralph Ziman, director (South Africa)
"The Karamazovs," Petr Zelenka, director (Czech Republic)
"Love of Siam," Chookiat Sakveerakul, director (Thailand)
"Masquerades," Lyes Salem, director (Algeria)
"Mermaid," Anna Melikyan, director (Russia)
"My Magic," Eric Khoo, director (Singapore)
"No One's Son," Arsen Anton Ostojic, director (Croatia)
"Painted Skin," Gordon Chan, director (Hong Kong)
"Rooster's Breakfast," Marko Nabersnik, director (Slovenia)
"Salt of This Sea" Annemarie Jacir, director (Palestine)
"Taare Zameen Par," Aamir Khan, director (India)
"Under the Bombs," Philippe Aractingi, director (Lebanon)
"White Night Wedding," Baltasar Kormakur, director (Iceland)

Spotlight: While the breakup of the Soviet bloc in the early 1990s widened the playing field with countries like Georgia and Slovakia now competing independently, the dominant languages of the former foreign film powerhouses -- the USSR (nine nods, three wins) and Czechoslovakia (six nods, two wins) -- continue to do well. Russia has won one of five nominations, while the Czech Republic is one for three.

(Photo: "The Curious Case of Benjamin Button" courtesy Digital Domain / Paramoutn Pictures)

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